The expansion of ULEZ has exposed societal divisions over climate change and cleaning the air. Questions remain over whether London has prepared itself for the world's largest low emissions zone.
On Tuesday 29th August, the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) expanded to cover most of Greater London. Any non-compliant vehicles that enter the ULEZ boundary will now have to pay a £12.50 charge on top of any other existing charges (such as the Congestion Charge). With the expansion, London has become the world's largest low emissions zone. Earning this title will come as more positive news to environmentalists and Transport for London (TfL), particularly Sadiq Khan. Who views it negatively? Various factions across the political and social spectrum. The rollout of the ULEZ expansion has prompted protests from hundreds of people, a legal challenge from 5 Conservative run councils and even rebuke from Sir Keir who indicated that the ULEZ expansion was a key factor to the loss of the by-election for Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Has ULEZ come too early? There are various factors to consider:
Superloop - the supposed 'jewel in the crown'
Whilst London's transport system is the most advanced in the country, the alternative transport options simply have yet to come to fruition. The 'Superloop' bus network, hailed by the Mayor as the 'jewel in the crown' to private car alternatives has yet to be fully implemented - less than half of the 10 Superloop services are in operation. Of course, the Mayor and TfL have pushed the sense of urgency to act on the climate crisis but given that the Superloop is operating more as a 'Supergap', who will ditch the cars for an incomplete bus system? Furthermore, across the board from high to low frequencies and night buses, bus delays are creeping up with bus speeds averaging below 9.5mph, lower than previous years. It does not seem at all appealing if the bus journey is significantly longer than driving. Though, TfL have said that they will use the money made from ULEZ to fund transport projects such as the Superloop, so improvements to bus journeys are expected.
Ditching the polluting cars - can we afford it?
Perhaps what is most controversial about the expanded ULEZ rollout is the timing of it. Post-pandemic impact, the invasion of Ukraine and even post-Brexit consequences have plunged the U.K into a cost of living crisis. Non-compliant car owners have been disproportionately affected by the ULEZ expansion with many of those owners being unable to afford to buy new, compliant cars. Motorway, the car selling company, published in January 2023 a Censuswide sample of which 45% are worried about affordability of driving in the expanded ULEZ and 65% cannot afford to switch to a compliant car. Is it appropriate to add another burdening cost whilst so many people cannot even afford the everyday items?
The Environmental Impact
TfL and the Mayor are quick to boast about the positive statistics of pre-expanded ULEZ - an estimated '4,900 tonnes of NOx have been saved', 'over 80 tonnes of PM2.5' and '293,000 tonnes of CO2 have been saved' [1]. It is worth noting that these statistics have been derived from scenarios meaning that no ULEZ is an estimate by representing what TfL refer to 'a natural churn in the vehicle fleet'. Contrastingly, a report [2] conducted by Imperial College London researchers where 79 individual air quality monitoring sites (specifically on the roadside ~ 1 to 5m of a road at breathing level and background for town and city-wide exposure analysis) detect concentration changes of certain, known pollutants concluded that ULEZ itself was not significant enough to reduce air pollution across the zone with 3% reductions in NO2 and insignificant effect on PM2.5 concentration after the initial ULEZ implementation. Both the report and TfL are in agreement, however, that London's air quality improvements were observable from various sets of policies.
Political Opposition to ULEZ
ULEZ has certainly had its opponents ranging from all political sides from the GMB Union to the right-wing Reform Party. The rollout of the expansion has certainly met its resistance with hundreds of ULEZ cameras being vandalised by so-called 'Blade Runners'. However, none have had a more prominent platform than the Conservative Party. As the ruling party in Government and the main opposition in the London Assembly, the Conservatives have capitalised on opposition to ULEZ by turning it into an anti-Labour tactic. Despite ULEZ being proposed by the then Tory Mayor of London Boris Johnson, the Conservatives hope to use this discontent to give them the keys to City Hall with the 2024 London Mayoral Candidate Susan Hall promising to scrap this expansion should she be elected.
So, has it come too early? Yes and no. There is no denying that air pollution is harmful and thousands of Londoners will suffer and likely die from air pollution-related health issues. The urgency to act and, with part thanks to ULEZ, the air quality surrounding the original ULEZ has improved. Yet, is London's public transport system is a viable alternative to the private car for Outer London residents? Can the lower class afford such drastic charges, especially during a cost of living crisis? How big is the rebellion against ULEZ?
Whilst the hope for preventing the ULEZ expansion has disappeared, its critics and questions on the overall confidence in the development of Outer London's transport system are here to stay.
[1] Mayor of London 2023 Inner London Ultra Low Emission Zone - One Year Report available at https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023-02/Inner%20London%20ULEZ%20One%20Year%20Report%20-%20final.pdf
[2] Liang Ma et al 2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 124001