After 117 years of service, is the Bakerloo line fit for service?
Over the last year, I have developed the urge to explore more about history. I have visited the Imperial War Museum twice. To get to the museum, the closest station is Lambeth North. It takes approximately 7 minutes to walk from the station to the museum. It is only 7 minutes apart by foot but the perspective of history is worlds apart.
Lambeth North station is severely run down. The surface station building itself is beautiful - a Leslie Green classic. However, any admiration for Art Nouveau is short-lived by the poor standard of the station. Overhead wires are nailed into chipped away walls, historically beautiful but now arches are covered in dirt and the passageways are scratched with graffiti, glorified in unattractiveness and potential structural danger. How safe is this place?
The judgement may be harsh for questioning the functional capability of an entire Tube line from one station. However, issues regarding safety on the Bakerloo line have been raised for many years. There have been many concerns over the safety of the 1972 stock. In its 46th year of service on the Bakerloo line, the trains are in desperate need of retirement. Yet, these trains are not expected to retire until at least 2027 (according to 2018, pre-COVID forecasts) or even the late 2030s and 2040s (as part of Managed Decline suggested by TfL) - in the worst case scenario, this is almost double the intended service life of these trains. The 1972 stock trains are the oldest EMUs in passenger service - Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, revealed in a video collaboration with LADBible that faulty parts of Bakerloo line trains have to be replaced by those from disused trains modelled in the London Transport Museum because the factory that manufactured these trains closed.
These trains have undergone essential fleet improvement as part of the Bakerloo line Life Extension programme owing to the 'structural integrity issues' and 'age related failures' - a 'band-aid solution' that will cost £67 million. Given the financial situation of TfL, it is likely that this method is the only way of ensuring that Bakerloo line operations could be maximised in current circumstances. Though, it is as if the consequences of 'plastering' are already being felt. Excluding the 2020-2021 financial year, the percentage of services operated on the Bakerloo line has decreased yearly since 2018, from an average 97.2% to 90.1% the last financial year. This year, should the trend be followed, will result in the line's service operated percentage fall below Tube network average for the first time*.
What has happened to the Bakerloo? Only a few years ago, its future was firmly backed by an extension to Lewisham. Now, the entire line faces an uncertain forecast: the extension is put on hold and it has been less than 2 years since the Mayor threatened to close a Tube line to fill in TfL's financial deficit - 'reports' suggesting the Bakerloo was a likely option. Although it may just be words, it highlights the vulnerability to closure and consequences of underfunding such public transport systems.
Like the Tube as a whole, the Bakerloo line shows the uniqueness of the Tube when comparing with other metro systems around the world. The narrow tunnels validate the nickname 'Tube', the line is littered with stations protected by Historical England and its history is richer than most underground systems worldwide. Rather than appreciating the history of the 117 year old line, it is instead raising concerns about the safety and efficiency of the line. Where is the line drawn between historically aesthetic and rapidly ageing?
Nonetheless, the Bakerloo line is essential. Each day, it is crucial to hundreds of thousands of commuters and the proposed extension will newly connect tens of thousands of South Londoners to the Tube network. However, will it be ready for the future? 'Wear and tear' or years of neglect? How much longer will plastering solve the problem?
Is the line fit for future service? In its current state, I don't believe so. In fact, it feels as if the line barely 'gets by' in its present day. Although it is unfortunate that the extension seems evermore distant, it allows time for the existing infrastructure of the line to improve and be ready for future service. After all, we can only Back the Bakerloo in the future if, in the present, we 'Save the Bakerloo'.